Journal of Siberian Federal University. Mathematics & Physics / SIRV-D Optimal Control Model for COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios

Full text (.pdf)
Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Mathematics & Physics. 2023 16 (1)
Authors
Petrakova, Viktoriya S.; Shaydurov, Vladimir V.
Contact information
Petrakova, Viktoriya S.: Institute of Computational Modelling SB RAS Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation; OCRID: 0000-0003-1126-2148; Shaydurov, Vladimir V.: Institute of Computational Modelling SB RAS Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation; OCRID: 0000-0002-7883-5804
Keywords
scenarios of COVID-19 propagation; SIR-type model; optimal control model
Abstract

The article presents the compartmental differential formulation of SIR-type for modeling the dynamics of the incidence of viral infections, in particular COVID-19, taking into account the ongoing vaccination campaign and the possibility of losing immunity during some time period after vaccination or a disease. The proposed model is extended by considering the coefficients of the model as dependent on the social loyalty of the population to isolation and vaccination. This allows us to formulate the optimal control problem and build various scenarios for the development of the epidemiological situation. The results obtained on the basis of the considered models were compared with real statistical data on the incidence in the Krasnoyarsk Territory

Pages
87–97
EDN
OEDUSL
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/149770