Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences / Forecasting Consumer Price Index in Sierra Leone: An Application of The ARIMA Box-Jenkins Methodology

Full text (.pdf)
Issue
Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences. 2025 18 (12)
Authors
Foday Daboh
Contact information
Foday Daboh: Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russian Federation; ; ORCID: 0000-0002-5558-845X
Keywords
consumer price index; inflation forecasting; ARIMA; Sierra Leone; time series analysis; economic policy; monetary policy; Box-Jenkins methodology; ARIMA
Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a crucial measuring tool for informing sound economic and monetary policies in developing countries like Sierra Leone, where inflation poses a significant challenge. The data used in this study comprises the quarterly time series data of Sierra Leone from 2008Q1 to 2024Q2. The study implemented the Box- Jenkins approach, the ARIMA methodology, which yielded highly contingent findings. In Sierra Leone, inflation was found to be extremely volatile due to external shocks, local economic conditions, and international commodity prices. The analysis also revealed that inflation for 2025Q4 is expected to reach 15.82 %, recovering from the projection of 53.6 % in 2023Q4. This prediction was generated using the most accurate model, ARIMA (1,1,9). Despite this potential improvement, uncertainty surrounding future inflation remains high, indicating the need for comprehensive policy interventions. The results suggest that there is a need for aggressive monetarist countermeasures, enhanced local production, and future restructuring of the nation’s economy to stabilize inflation

Pages
2410–2425
EDN
JXCJPD
Paper at repository of SibFU
https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/158000

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